Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa06…b796 sports 698 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%653W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$52
14 days−$12
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$48
weather 26% +$51
crypto 18% +$14
other 7% +$2
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +3.2% -6.7% 92% 10% -6.7%
≤30d 203 -2.0% -11.3% 90% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 553 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 4% -9.5%
all 697 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses653 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)697 / 698
History coverage100d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $52 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $43 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $34 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $47 −$12 -26%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $68 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $65 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $63 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $62 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $52 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 40h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 40h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 42h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 42h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 44h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 44h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $41 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.21 · official $69.21 (match) · 1561 history records