Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa05…fed7 sports 1229 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$637 (-1%) realized −$544 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%821W / 378L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$33
14 days−$51
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$259
crypto 23% −$364
politics 8% −$334
other 6% −$524
tech 3% +$247
world 2% +$538
weather 0% −$63
culture 0% −$41
economics 0% −$15
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 60% -14.3%
≤30d 34 -10.3% -18.8% 68% 53% -18.5%
≤90d 829 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 46% -21.6%
all 1199 -1.6% -10.9% 68% 49% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 49% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 33% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 24% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$34 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$2,610
Realized−$544
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses821 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1199 / 1229
History coverage249d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $351 $376 +$25 (+7%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $190 $241 +$51 (+27%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 73¢ 99¢ $80 $109 +$29 (+36%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 67¢ 85¢ $81 $103 +$22 (+27%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 70¢ 98¢ $73 $102 +$29 (+40%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $150 $93 −$57 (-38%)
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? No 33¢ 63¢ $36 $68 +$32 (+88%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 80¢ $64 $59 −$5 (-8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 79¢ 86¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 63¢ 76¢ $36 $44 +$8 (+21%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 62¢ 32¢ $70 $35 −$34 (-49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+77%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? Yes 60¢ 45¢ $45 $34 −$11 (-25%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 58¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-44%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 53¢ 67¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 35¢ 16¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-58%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No 70¢ 79¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 29 $15 +$10 +65%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $29 +$6 +21%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $25 +$6 +24%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 29 $14 +$20 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $45 +$5 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $55 +$18 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $97 +$4 +4%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $16 +$5 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 +$7 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$8 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$14 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $4 +$1 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $40 −$39 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $12 +$7 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $260 +$10 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $98 +$47 +49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $71 +$49 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $109 −$108 -99%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $12 +$4 +31%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $46 +$24 +52%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend May 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Jovic vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 25 $58 +$6 +11%
Game Handicap: LOS (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) May 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 25 $8 +$3 +37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $3 $0 +8%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) May 25 $9 +$3 +35%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 25 $4 +$7 +199%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 25 $16 +$7 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $64 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $25 14h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 60¢ $15 16h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $29 16h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $55 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 89¢ $45 19h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY T1 41¢ $14 19h
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 77¢ $355 26h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $97 39h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 75¢ $16 42h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $43 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $25 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 8d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ $40 8d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 78¢ $4 8d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 33¢ $7 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $13 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,610.49 · official $2,610.30 (match) · 3284 history records