Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa04…fe72
other · 110 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage109d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 35¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Magic Mavericks 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Jazz Jazz 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Nuggets Lakers 38¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Cavaliers 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 81¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $299 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $376 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$5
politics 37% −$4
sports 8% +$7
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 5d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $78 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $73 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $73 26d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $71 27d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 31d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 +2.9% -6.9% 7% 5% -9.1%
all 109 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 301 history records