Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa04…83e5 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-14%) realized −$185 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$53
14 days−$222
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$68
other 20% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +30.7% +18.3% 52% 52% -2.5%
≤30d 45 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 42% -22.4%
≤90d 47 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 40% -23.2%
all 47 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 40% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 40% -23.2%
10% -17.2% 40% -30.6%
15% -25.2% 40% -37.3%
20% -32.5% 40% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage78d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 40¢ $132 $119 −$13 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $8 +$28 +344%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$68 +134%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $91 −$90 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $31 +$52 +169%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $39 +$41 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 +$33 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$27 +89%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$16 +158%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$24 +238%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$23 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$52 +177%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$19 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$14 +197%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will AZ vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $129 14m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $36 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 22¢ $8 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $51 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 35h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 35h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $91 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 48¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 53¢ $51 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $39 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $51 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $18 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $10 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 5d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $58 5d
Rayan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $4 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $30 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.60 · official $124.60 (match) · 71 history records