Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa01…944b crypto 798 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-10%) realized −$385 · open +$40
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%371W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$107
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$134
sports 36% −$149
other 10% −$47
world 3% −$78
finance 2% −$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -49.9% -54.6% 38% 38% -32.0%
≤30d 22 -35.4% -41.6% 27% 23% -30.9%
≤90d 796 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 45% -21.6%
all 796 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 45% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -21.6%
10% -25.9% 41% -29.1%
15% -33.0% 35% -35.9%
20% -39.6% 32% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses371 / 425
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)796 / 798
History coverage72d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Agamenone (-1.5) vs Castelnuovo (+1.5) Castelnuovo 50¢ 100¢ $35 $69 +$35 (+100%)
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 47¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs Alves Jun 22 $40 +$7 +17%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$3 +42%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $23 +$6 +28%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $75 −$3 -3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $56 −$6 -11%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $12 −$8 -72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Henri Squire vs Cristian Garin Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $7 +$2 +31%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $18 +$14 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $6 $0 -1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 23 $0 $0 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $9 −$1 -12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 21 $4 $0 -8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5 $0 -9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 21 $5 $0 -8%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 21 $3 $0 -9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $13 $0 -4%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray May 21 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? May 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $7 $0 -5%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $63 −$8 -12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $91 +$30 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -73%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 16 $16 −$6 -36%
FC Schalke 04 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
NK Varaždin leading at halftime? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC leading at halftime? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will HNK Vukovar 1991 vs. NK Varaždin end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NK Varaždin win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Agamenone (-1.5) vs Castelnuovo (+1.5) BUY Castelnuovo 50¢ $35 1h
Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs Alves BUY McDonald 85¢ $40 20h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $23 21h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $6 22h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $6 25h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 77¢ $9 33h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 45h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY Yes $10 45h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $17 7d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY No 71¢ $17 7d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $61 8d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $12 8d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 10d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 61¢ $50 10d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 67¢ $56 10d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Rinky Hijikata $3 11d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 17¢ $12 11d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto BUY Juan Estevez 76¢ $7 12d
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez BUY Facundo Mena 51¢ $5 13d
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 51¢ $10 13d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $6 14d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $6 14d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $6 14d
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Bryce Mitchell 52¢ $2 26d
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 SELL Yes $0 27d
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $18 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.61 · official $74.61 (match) · 1987 history records