Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9ff…f477 world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2
other 23% −$2
sports 14% +$9
politics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 11% -9.0%
all 22 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 9% -7.7%
10% -14.2% 5% -16.5%
15% -22.5% 5% -24.6%
20% -30.1% 5% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage484d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $71 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $14 +$3 +22%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $4 −$1 -20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $18 $0 -1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 22 $18 $0 -0%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 04 $18 $0 -2%
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Mar 04 $26 −$8 -31%
Rutgers vs. Washington Mar 04 $8 +$17 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $3 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $35 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $9 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $26 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $29 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $16 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.89 (match) · 68 history records