Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9fc…0ade crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182 (-19%) realized −$209 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$211
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$221
sports 28% +$136
world 5% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-86.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -58.5% -62.4% 0% 0% -56.2%
≤30d 11 -59.1% -63.0% 9% 9% -19.4%
≤90d 11 -59.1% -63.0% 9% 9% -19.4%
all 32 -84.5% -86.0% 3% 3% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.0% 3% -27.4%
10% -87.3% 3% -34.4%
15% -88.5% 3% -40.7%
20% -89.7% 3% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$12 · ×17.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage175d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $58 $85 +$27 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 21 $407 −$209 -52%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -65%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$7 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $184 +$211 +114%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 31? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Dec 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 29 $20 −$11 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $61 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $78 40h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $91 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $97 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $78 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 8d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $50 8d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $64 8d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $7 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 7¢ $4 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 6¢ $4 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 94¢ $48 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 92¢ $43 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 45¢ $45 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 42¢ $12 8d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 8¢ $21 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 61¢ $53 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $10 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.50 · official $85.50 (match) · 62 history records