Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9f9…5273 sports 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$302 (-1%) realized −$331 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%150W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days−$775
14 days−$285
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$679
other 9% −$933
politics 1% +$53
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$50
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -14.7% -22.9% 45% 40% -15.5%
≤30d 351 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 35% -10.1%
≤90d 362 -19.0% -26.8% 41% 35% -10.3%
all 362 -19.0% -26.8% 41% 35% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 35% -10.3%
10% -33.8% 28% -18.9%
15% -40.2% 26% -26.7%
20% -46.0% 23% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$35 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses150 / 212
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions24
Markets (closed)362 / 386
History coverage89d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 62¢ 96¢ $130 $202 +$71 (+54%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $48 $110 +$62 (+128%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ 18¢ $153 $99 −$55 (-36%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Under 75¢ 68¢ $64 $58 −$6 (-10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ 18¢ $66 $42 −$24 (-36%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 65¢ 99¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+52%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ 42¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 55¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No 16¢ 13¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 27¢ 8¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 7¢ $12 $1 −$10 (-88%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $28 −$10 -36%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 +$6 +45%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $207 +$170 +82%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $23 +$93 +400%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 +$2 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$16 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$4 +36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$50 +165%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 +$259 +206%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 +$9 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $12 +$11 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $147 +$11 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $31 −$7 -24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $44 +$5 +10%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $148 +$124 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $55 −$19 -35%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $125 +$5 +4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $186 −$154 -83%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $186 −$155 -83%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $18 +$19 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $131 −$129 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $207 −$154 -74%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$10 -62%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $54 −$53 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $296 +$123 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $296 +$88 +30%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $215 +$119 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $76 −$6 -8%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $55 +$27 +48%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $58 +$33 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $59 +$11 +18%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$9 +33%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $71 +$18 +25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $43 −$42 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $65 2m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $36 10m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $5 12m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $21 20m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $19 25m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 52¢ $2 25m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $3 25m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $111 25m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $21 28m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $5 28m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 28m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $144 29m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $18 29m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $4 35m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 16¢ $13 52m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $12 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 60¢ $12 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $147 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 51¢ $20 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 87¢ $47 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 86¢ $100 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 81¢ $207 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 27¢ $12 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $14 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 38¢ $24 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 7¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.56 · official $723.43 · 1176 history records