Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9f3…4bce other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48,292 (-17%) realized −$49,415 · open +$1,123
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%52W / 53L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,577per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$12,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$31,102
other 35% −$17,271
sports 11% −$17,877
politics 9% −$30
crypto 5% +$17,502
weather 0% +$80
economics 0% +$223
culture 0% −$16
tech 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +60.1% +44.8% 67% 67% +65.2%
≤90d 10 -27.9% -34.8% 40% 20% -41.8%
all 105 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 25% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 25% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 21% -34.3%
15% -36.5% 16% -40.6%
20% -42.7% 13% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,139) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$589 vs −$1,515 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$29,060
Realized−$49,415
Unrealized+$1,123
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses52 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage707d
Avg bet$2,577
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $10,723 $11,178 +$455 (+4%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $9,547 $9,492 −$55 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 77¢ 86¢ $4,870 $5,374 +$504 (+10%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,645 $1,656 +$11 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 60¢ 71¢ $1,153 $1,360 +$207 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $5,057 −$5,006 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $9,917 +$17,312 +175%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $80 +$84 +106%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 19 $766 −$757 -99%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $744 +$18 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $2,011 −$1,294 -64%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 01 $24,955 −$24,955 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15,223 +$439 +3%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $558 −$558 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Feb 21 $11,979 −$127 -1%
Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Feb 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $13,730 −$13,730 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Jan 03 $2,046 −$1,978 -97%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jan 01 $1,419 −$141 -10%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 01 $8,862 +$257 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $509 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $238 +$435 +182%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 31 $29,398 +$2,051 +7%
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Dec 29 $3,372 +$779 +23%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $163 −$163 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Dec 15 $50 −$11 -23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 15 $14,994 +$1,379 +9%
Will Democrats win five elections in Nov? Dec 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 11 $940 +$414 +44%
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%? Dec 04 $33 +$66 +201%
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30? Dec 02 $3,297 +$491 +15%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $2,709 +$75 +3%
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? Nov 21 $1,108 +$25 +2%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Nov 20 $824 −$532 -64%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Nov 19 $1,517 +$28 +2%
Clippers vs. 76ers Nov 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30? Nov 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential elect Nov 17 $952 +$10 +1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025 Nov 15 $821 +$80 +10%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 14 $488 −$385 -79%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 14 $366 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Nov 12 $26 −$26 -100%
California redistricting referendum passes? Nov 11 $2,154 −$23 -1%
Will Sombr win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Nov 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 08 $810 −$10 -1%
Bulls vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Nov 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 109.5 Nov 07 $32 +$32 +100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $88 −$44 -49%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 06 $249 −$2 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10,835 +$269 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 05 $205 −$191 -94%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $989 −$941 -95%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Nov 05 $3,482 +$124 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $559 1h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 85¢ $748 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8,989 1h
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $200 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,998 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,677 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $344 5h
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $434 24h
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $820 25h
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $190 25h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,443 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,689 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $96 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $162 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $649 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 61¢ $269 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 60¢ $27 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 60¢ $761 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27,133 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $4,013 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $5,407 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $60 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $164 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 56¢ $324 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $333 25d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 58¢ $333 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,060.17 · official $29,060.17 (match) · 834 history records