Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9f2…6c8e world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,694 (+6%) realized +$14,072 · open +$622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate65%46W / 25L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$3,127per market
Trades / day125.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,009
7 days+$9,263
14 days+$11,693
30 days+$13,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$13,082
politics 13% +$161
crypto 8% +$498
sports 2% +$114
other 2% +$256
tech 0% −$69
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 29% -2.2%
≤30d 71 +0.4% -9.2% 65% 21% -4.8%
≤90d 71 +0.4% -9.2% 65% 21% -4.8%
all 71 +0.4% -9.2% 65% 21% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 21% -4.8%
10% -17.9% 4% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 3% -22.2%
20% -33.1% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,614) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$106 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.05 per $1 lost it wins $6.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,448
Realized+$14,072
Unrealized+$622
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses46 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 83
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3,127
Trades / day125.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,062 $1,095 +$33 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 37¢ 76¢ $447 $923 +$476 (+106%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $676 $703 +$27 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 84¢ $300 $368 +$68 (+23%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 61¢ 75¢ $150 $184 +$34 (+23%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $147 $154 +$7 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 17¢ 21¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+23%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $89 +$161 +180%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $20 −$16 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $35,087 +$6,868 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $150 −$5 -4%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $142 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $949 +$66 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $4,878 +$105 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $12,501 +$2,064 +16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $2,000 +$170 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $159 +$202 +127%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $500 +$35 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,690 +$131 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $15,639 −$288 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$50 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $842 +$146 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $106 +$15 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $839 +$47 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $3,614 +$110 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $8,595 −$1,228 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $13,703 +$433 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $1,000 +$52 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $222 −$45 -20%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $6,792 +$69 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $78 +$1 +1%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 11 $508 −$31 -6%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $108 −$22 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $550 +$80 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $106 −$37 -35%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $2,832 +$128 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $52 −$22 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,520 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $320 −$6 -2%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $29 −$22 -76%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,094 +$78 +7%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1,041 +$145 +14%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $1,204 −$364 -30%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $1,335 +$74 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $500 −$33 -6%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $4,918 +$135 +3%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 08 $72 −$13 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7,612 +$1,515 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7,034 +$242 +3%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$16 -45%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $350 −$56 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $21 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $42 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 10m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 13m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $100 30m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 83¢ $250 30m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 31m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $100 40m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $66 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $122 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $726 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $148 42m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 45m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $100 46m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $100 46m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 59m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 59m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $500 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $100 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $200 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 17¢ $7 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $50 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $94 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $50 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,448.39 · official $3,448.60 (match) · 2566 history records