Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa9ec…710a weather 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$37
sports 35% +$78
other 9% +$49
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 18% +3.1%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 18% +3.1%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 18% +3.1%
all 17 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 18% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 18% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 12% -6.8%
15% -26.4% 12% -15.8%
20% -33.6% 12% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $111 +$78 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $62 +$49 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 27 $85 −$15 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 27 $50 −$13 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 27 $50 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 27 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 27 $51 −$8 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? Jun 27 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 28? Jun 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 42m
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $189 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $111 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $111 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY 23¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? SELL No 53¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 63¢ $47 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $13 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? SELL No 76¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 60¢ $43 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $51 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 76¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 66¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 47¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 69¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? SELL No 73¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 69¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 72¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 68¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $35 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 28? SELL No 87¢ $7 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records