Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9eb…ee8a world 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$267 (-2%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$10
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$268
sports 24% +$7
other 21% −$10
politics 14% +$4
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -3.0% -12.2% 29% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 44 +41.4% +27.9% 32% 5% -12.1%
all 54 +33.7% +21.0% 30% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 4% -11.4%
10% +9.4% 2% -19.9%
15% -1.2% 2% -27.6%
20% -10.9% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage189d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $321 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $293 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $167 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $151 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $69 +$12 +18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $155 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $367 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $142 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $469 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $303 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $287 −$4 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $210 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $137 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $345 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $279 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $108 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $156 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $161 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $146 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $19 −$6 -33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $53 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,115 +$6 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $241 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,201 −$9 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $324 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $413 −$271 -66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $660 +$6 +1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $76 $0 +0%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $347 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 17 $347 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 17 $347 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $346 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $114 28m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 28m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $167 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $152 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $152 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $157 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $167 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $124 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $124 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $167 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $169 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $148 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $148 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $154 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $154 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $81 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $87 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $56 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $140 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $9 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $95 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records