Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e7…ed80 weather 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-1%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days−$266
14 days−$266
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$378
weather 14% −$266
other 6% +$128
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 5% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 5% 0% -18.2%
≤90d 31 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 3% -16.2%
all 42 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 10% -11.8%
10% -21.7% 5% -20.2%
15% -29.3% 2% -27.9%
20% -36.2% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$715) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$63 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage124d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1,036 −$239 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $28 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $201 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $215 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? Jun 22 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 22 $953 −$6 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $27 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $48 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 21 $43 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? Jun 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 20 $1,061 +$48 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $471 −$470 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $438 +$33 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $609 −$609 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1,077 +$10 +1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $222 −$182 -82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,699 +$166 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $1,523 +$151 +10%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $884 +$252 +29%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $1,598 +$127 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $2,282 +$44 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 12 $39 −$39 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $211 +$33 +16%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $210 +$10 +5%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $162 +$4 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $1,880 +$4 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 05 $430 +$19 +4%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Mar 04 $715 +$9 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 24 $54 +$86 +159%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Feb 24 $418 +$72 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 67¢ $793 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $858 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $6 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $168 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 87¢ $4 48m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 79¢ $6 48m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 87¢ $4 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 64¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 62¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 69¢ $210 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 62¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 65¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 64¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 65¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records