Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa9e5…753a
other · 32 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$101 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$176 · open +$172
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$506
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions15
Markets (closed)17 / 32
History coverage14d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%
Chart Positions 15 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 17¢ 88¢ $25 $133 +$108 (+427%)
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 13¢ 43¢ $19 $65 +$46 (+241%)
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 42¢ 72¢ $27 $46 +$19 (+71%)
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 39¢ 28¢ $57 $42 −$15 (-27%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Yes 10¢ 92¢ $2 $18 +$16 (+777%)
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? No $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 19¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-42%)
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 30¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+78%)
Malik Tillman: 1+ goals Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals Yes 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Malik Tillman: 1+ goals Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $77 −$16 -21%
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $3 +$25 +980%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $6 +$11 +181%
Will Mike Penders be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$17 +1147%
Will Koni De Winter be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$17 +1176%
Will Dodi Lukébakio be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 +$30 +958%
Will Malik Tillman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $5 +$47 +924%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,376 −$279 -20%
Bahrain vs. Syria: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $166 −$22 -13%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $3 +$10 +343%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $162 −$20 -12%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $285 +$310 +109%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $64 −$9 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 +$13 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$23
other 35% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 25m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $5 41m
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 1h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $11 1h
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 51¢ $10 2h
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 2h
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $5 7h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 15¢ $23 9h
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 30¢ $42 9h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 9h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 9h
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 25¢ $2 9h
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 40¢ $41 9h
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $18 9h
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 25¢ $5 9h
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 53¢ $24 9h
Malik Tillman: 1+ goals BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 15¢ $17 19h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 20h
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 32h
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 33h
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No $10 33h
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 17¢ $26 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+282.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +323.2% +282.9% 53% 53% -15.9%
≤30d 17 +323.2% +282.9% 53% 53% -15.9%
≤90d 17 +323.2% +282.9% 53% 53% -15.9%
all 17 +323.2% +282.9% 53% 53% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +282.9% 53% -15.9%
10% +246.3% 53% -24.0%
15% +212.8% 53% -31.3%
20% +182.2% 53% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.74 · official $542.93 · 113 history records