Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e4…4d98 crypto 1643 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$748 (-5%) realized −$748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%1585W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$164
14 days−$174
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -9.2% -17.8% 88% 2% -15.4%
≤30d 857 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 2% -11.8%
≤90d 1668 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 3% -10.7%
all 1668 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 3% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1585 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1668 / 1643
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1668 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.15 · official $133.15 (match) · 3500 history records