Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e2…8d9b other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-15%) realized −$73 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$6
world 25% −$8
tech 13% −$47
sports 2% −$8
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 1 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 9 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 11% -21.5%
all 32 -48.5% -53.4% 19% 9% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 9% -22.2%
10% -57.9% 6% -29.7%
15% -62.0% 6% -36.5%
20% -65.7% 6% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage336d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 35¢ 77¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+120%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $96 +$3 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 20 $40 −$36 -89%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 08 $1 +$4 +416%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Apr 08 $3 $0 -11%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $42 +$3 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 10 $3 $0 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–M Feb 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Feb 02 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK end in a draw? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 28 $86 −$2 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Jan 28 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? Aug 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Astronomer CEO Andy Byron sue Coldplay? Aug 03 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $4 34d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 55d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 77d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 77d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 20¢ $3 77d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 81d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $4 81d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 89d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $38 93d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 95d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 95d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 36¢ $5 95d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 22¢ $3 101d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 106d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 106d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 106d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 111d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 117d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 118d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 121d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $5 122d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 122d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Down 59¢ $1 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.39 · official $24.39 (match) · 77 history records