Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

A9 0xa9df…950a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$108 (-20%) realized −$70 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-61.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-57.0%	-61.1%	25%	0%	-51.8%
≤30d	4	-57.0%	-61.1%	25%	0%	-51.8%
≤90d	4	-57.0%	-61.1%	25%	0%	-51.8%
all	4	-57.0%	-61.1%	25%	0%	-51.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-61.1%	0%	-51.8%
10%	-64.9%	0%	-56.4%
15%	-68.3%	0%	-60.6%
20%	-71.4%	0%	-64.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -47% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$76 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized−$70

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	35¢	18¢	$75	$38	−$38 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$109	−$107	-98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$101	+$8	+8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$222	−$81	-36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$77	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$109	4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	60¢	$110	6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$41	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	50¢	$141	7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$222	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.72 · official $37.73 (match) · 7 history records