Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9da…1384 other 12 markets active 9h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$1
sports 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 29% -11.9%
≤30d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 29% -11.9%
≤90d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 29% -11.9%
all 7 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 29% -11.9%
10% -21.6% 29% -20.3%
15% -29.2% 29% -28.0%
20% -36.1% 29% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.04 · official $5.05 (match) · 14 history records