Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d6…a483 crypto 572 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,704 (-23%) realized −$1,699 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%230W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$121
14 days+$54
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 55% -14.7%
≤30d 302 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 40% -9.6%
≤90d 571 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 35% -10.9%
all 571 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 35% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 32% -19.4%
15% -35.6% 30% -27.2%
20% -41.9% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$1,699
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses230 / 341
Open positions2
Markets (closed)571 / 572
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 73¢ 50¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$42 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $111 −$75 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $109 −$62 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$46 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$70 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $107 +$43 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$22 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$44 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$29 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$26 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$31 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$17 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $87 +$39 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $34 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $38 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $38 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $38 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $38 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $38 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.23 · official $11.19 (match) · 3500 history records