Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d5…2b9c sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$181 (-6%) realized −$180 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%47W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$36
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$352
other 9% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 55 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 27% -8.2%
≤90d 149 -16.5% -24.5% 32% 28% -16.5%
all 149 -16.5% -24.5% 32% 28% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 28% -16.5%
10% -31.7% 28% -24.5%
15% -38.3% 26% -31.8%
20% -44.3% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses47 / 102
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage72d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $39 +$46 +117%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$6 -25%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $3 +$10 +400%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $147 +$3 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $91 +$107 +116%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $81 +$49 +60%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +116%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 +$16 +46%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $46 −$22 -46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $14 +$16 +121%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $34 −$10 -30%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $19 +$17 +87%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $15 −$1 -9%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $13 −$13 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$170 +848%
Ceará SC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +69%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5 May 31 $12 −$12 -98%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5 May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 3.5 May 31 $19 −$1 -8%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $14 −$14 -99%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 May 31 $31 −$5 -15%
São Bernardo FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Vasteraas SK vs. IFK Goteborg end in a draw? May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $15 $0 +3%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $43 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $85 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $39 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $5 4h
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 23h
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $200 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $123 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $27 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $86 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $3 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over $0 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over $0 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.62 · official $2.62 (match) · 350 history records