Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d4…f9fc world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$15
politics 16% −$5
other 12% +$1
finance 8% −$2
sports 8% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 33% -2.3%
≤30d 6 +23.0% +11.3% 67% 50% -0.0%
≤90d 9 +15.3% +4.3% 56% 33% -4.6%
all 37 +6.5% -3.7% 46% 11% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 11% -8.2%
10% -12.9% 8% -17.0%
15% -21.3% 8% -25.0%
20% -29.0% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage258d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $19 +$3 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $15 +$9 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $36 −$1 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 11? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 09 $24 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $23 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $19 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 32h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $0 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.40 · official $47.40 (match) · 119 history records