Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d3…9d4b sports 1435 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$49,701 (+17%) realized +$49,644 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%784W / 898L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$10,861
other 48% −$7,919
world 1% +$600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -80.6% -82.4% 8% 8% -91.4%
≤30d 503 -48.8% -53.6% 26% 25% -83.6%
≤90d 760 -30.0% -36.7% 37% 35% -22.7%
all 1682 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 44% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 44% -18.5%
10% -28.5% 42% -26.3%
15% -35.4% 38% -33.5%
20% -41.7% 31% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$167 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$49,644
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses784 / 898
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1682 / 1435
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$208
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $70 $88 +$19 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $71 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 47¢ 48¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+19%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 96¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 86¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+9%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $24 $12 −$11 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NEC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? Jun 17 $592 −$592 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Texans (-14.5) Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bruins vs. Blues Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Devils vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Mallorca vs. Getafe: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-24? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-23? Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-08-17? Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Jun 17 $849 −$849 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-28? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 17 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-30? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-08? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Malawi win on 2025-09-05? Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Jun 17 $457 −$457 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-19? Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-22? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $86 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $60 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $58 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $57 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $52 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $100 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 12h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 47¢ $56 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $58 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 14h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $85 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $60 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $70 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $93 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $60 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $66 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $37 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $30 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $44 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $52 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $61 37h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $14 37h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $7 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $90 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $40 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.72 · official $1,105.73 (match) · 3500 history records