Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d2…8cdf crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$54 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%21W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$4
crypto 43% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 99 -33.4% -39.7% 21% 19% -32.8%
all 99 -33.4% -39.7% 21% 19% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 19% -32.8%
10% -45.5% 19% -39.2%
15% -50.8% 19% -45.1%
20% -55.6% 19% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$796
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses21 / 78
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage58d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $18 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$10 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 29 $18 +$17 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 29 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 29 $11 +$24 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 29 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 29 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$11 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 29 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 29 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 29 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $14 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $795.81 · official $795.81 (match) · 176 history records