Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d0…4ed6 politics 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$9
economics 27% −$4
other 15% −$2
sports 2% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 65 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage630d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Leeds finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roma win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Dec 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xavier McKinney win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Mike Lee for Attorney General? Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Nov 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? Nov 12 $1 $0 -1%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $56 32d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $56 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 47d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 48d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 68d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 68d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 70d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 70d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 79d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 79d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $57 86d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $57 88d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 95d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 95d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 96d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 102d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 105d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 105d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $57 107d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $57 107d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 115d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records