Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9ce…0edb politics 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,094 (-1%) realized −$1,093 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate30%31W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$944per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$84
other 24% −$225
sports 7% −$815
culture 4% −$4
world 3% +$12
crypto 2% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -16.4% -24.4% 15% 2% -11.8%
all 103 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -10.6%
10% -19.1% 8% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 7% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,199) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,477
Realized−$1,093
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage132d
Avg bet$944
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $751 $751 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $727 $727 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $2,538 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,224 −$6 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,813 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $419 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $567 +$3 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $612 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,920 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $5,773 −$7 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,257 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 01 $331 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,848 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,346 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $3,466 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,426 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,457 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $443 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $188 $0 -0%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $1,178 −$1,178 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5) Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 24 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $751 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $727 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,582 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,584 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,556 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,558 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,289 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,291 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,490 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,492 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,494 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,337 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,339 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,199 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,352 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,355 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $988 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $990 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $800 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $801 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $619 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,477.43 · official $1,477.43 (match) · 331 history records