Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9c7…02d5 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$29 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$91
other 31% −$9
sports 16% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.3% -24.2% 56% 56% -25.6%
≤30d 9 -16.3% -24.2% 56% 56% -25.6%
≤90d 9 -16.3% -24.2% 56% 56% -25.6%
all 9 -16.3% -24.2% 56% 56% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 56% -25.6%
10% -31.5% 44% -32.7%
15% -38.1% 33% -39.2%
20% -44.2% 33% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$40 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 74¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 4¢ 3¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.76 · official $213.93 (match) · 29 history records