Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9c5…29cf other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$282 (-7%) realized −$185 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$372
14 days−$372
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$148
sports 28% −$494
finance 4% +$17
politics 1% −$6
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.3% -32.5% 67% 50% -52.6%
≤30d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 57% 43% -53.2%
≤90d 29 -14.2% -22.4% 76% 34% -38.4%
all 39 -14.5% -22.6% 72% 36% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 36% -25.1%
10% -30.0% 18% -32.3%
15% -36.8% 5% -38.8%
20% -43.0% 3% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$102 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage421d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? No 51¢ 89¢ $222 $383 +$162 (+73%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 73¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 11¢ $103 $33 −$70 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$23 +12%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 20 $157 −$128 -82%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $50 +$7 +14%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $80 +$2 +3%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $4 $0 +12%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $200 +$9 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? Apr 28 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Garrett Nussmeier be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Foo Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Carson Beck be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football Apr 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted 10th overall in the 2026 pro football Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ty Simpson be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football D Apr 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Patrick Reed finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National In Apr 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Will there be 0 knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds Feb 09 $200 +$60 +30%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds? Feb 09 $199 +$328 +165%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Feb 08 $200 +$13 +6%
Who will win Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin? Dec 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 26 $310 +$46 +15%
Karen Read guilty in officer's death? Dec 20 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Smith vs. Mingyang May 07 $100 +$32 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 25h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $403 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 4d
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $60 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $170 25d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 87¢ $15 32d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 32d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 58¢ $57 32d
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $160 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $29 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 35¢ $10 42d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $82 42d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 96¢ $30 42d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 98¢ $50 42d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Brady 100¢ $4 42d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 100¢ $13 42d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 75¢ $10 42d
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $76 42d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 89¢ $4 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $44 42d
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? BUY No 34¢ $10 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ $86 44d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ $16 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.16 · official $489.16 (match) · 115 history records