Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa9c4…fac0 sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%64W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$104
14 days−$40
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$151
other 11% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 33% -75.8%
≤30d 13 +67.1% +51.2% 62% 62% +35.3%
≤90d 55 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 38% +6.0%
all 178 -9.5% -18.1% 36% 35% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 35% -6.7%
10% -25.9% 35% -15.6%
15% -33.1% 33% -23.8%
20% -39.7% 30% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses64 / 114
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage183d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $32 −$31 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 +$92 +216%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $46 −$45 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$19 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $59 +$98 +166%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $86 +$86 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $15 −$8 -54%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 30 $6 +$2 +42%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $3 +$2 +83%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $2 +$2 +124%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $3 +$3 +105%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $3 +$3 +97%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 08 $3 +$3 +101%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $5 +$5 +91%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $1 +$5 +548%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $3 +$2 +73%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $134 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $42 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $46 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $39 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $172 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 45¢ $30 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 52¢ $56 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $5 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $5 45d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 21¢ $5 45d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 20¢ $7 45d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 15¢ $5 45d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 58¢ $8 56d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $6 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $5 60d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 22¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 467 history records