Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa9c1…23f8 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$129 (+39%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$88
other 18% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.1% +25.8% 55% 55% +40.1%
≤30d 11 +39.1% +25.8% 55% 55% +40.1%
≤90d 11 +39.1% +25.8% 55% 55% +40.1%
all 11 +39.1% +25.8% 55% 55% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 55% +40.1%
10% +13.8% 55% +26.6%
15% +2.8% 55% +14.4%
20% -7.3% 55% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$18 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $46 +$52 +114%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $9 +$41 +445%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $20 +$20 +97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $30 +$29 +97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $30 +$22 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$105 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 3h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $20 17h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 19h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 25h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 26h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 26h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 43h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 45h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records