Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa9bf…77ec crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$10
other 27% +$16
politics 21% +$39
crypto 12% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.5% +31.6% 100% 100% +31.6%
≤30d 1 +45.5% +31.6% 100% 100% +31.6%
≤90d 1 +45.5% +31.6% 100% 100% +31.6%
all 12 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 42% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 42% +1.6%
10% -25.2% 42% -8.1%
15% -32.4% 33% -17.0%
20% -39.0% 17% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage474d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 05 $12 +$12 +102%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $35 +$16 +47%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $93 −$26 -28%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $2 $0 -19%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $25 +$27 +107%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 06 $42 +$12 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 109d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 100¢ $51 133d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $35 133d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 10¢ $1 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 10¢ $2 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 58¢ $6 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 78¢ $15 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Tate 84¢ $41 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Tate 85¢ $26 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 87¢ $23 183d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 87¢ $46 183d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? SELL Yes 88¢ $40 185d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? SELL Yes $2 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? SELL Yes $5 185d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? BUY Yes $2 185d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $52 185d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $2 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 185d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 186d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 186d
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? SELL No 80¢ $28 473d
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? BUY No 60¢ $21 473d
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? SELL No 51¢ $26 473d
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? BUY No 41¢ $21 474d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records