Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9be…ab71 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+5%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%97W / 62L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$148
other 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 159 -6.9% -15.8% 61% 51% -8.0%
≤90d 159 -6.9% -15.8% 61% 51% -8.0%
all 159 -6.9% -15.8% 61% 51% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 51% -8.0%
10% -23.9% 36% -16.8%
15% -31.2% 20% -24.9%
20% -38.0% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage30d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$22 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$18 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $23 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $16 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $39 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records