Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A9 0xa9bd…4a74 crypto 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$867 (-3%) realized −$867 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%113W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$208
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,838
other 6% +$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 57% -6.9%
≤30d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 57% -6.9%
≤90d 172 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 49% -13.0%
all 172 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 49% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% -13.0%
10% -20.6% 32% -21.4%
15% -28.3% 20% -29.0%
20% -35.3% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$86 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$867
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses113 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage70d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$33 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $319 −$159 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $378 −$183 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $347 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $304 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $221 +$85 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $139 +$82 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $465 −$423 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $341 +$137 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $234 +$73 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $239 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $97 +$26 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $738 −$519 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,166 +$234 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $473 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $404 +$52 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $262 +$170 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $195 +$67 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $168 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$12 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$48 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 03 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 03 $38 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 02 $23 +$15 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 02 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 02 $53 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 02 $83 −$55 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 25 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $21 −$14 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $32 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 25 $24 +$9 +36%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 25 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 25 $19 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 25 $105 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 25 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$49 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 24 $171 −$165 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 24 $98 −$96 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $378 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $378 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $347 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $346 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $304 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $306 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $221 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $139 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $465 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $478 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $341 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $307 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $234 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $271 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $239 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $123 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 446 history records