Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9bd…e555 weather 743 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,710 (-5%) realized −$4,790 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate91%662W / 67L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 27% -12.2%
≤30d 507 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 31% -10.2%
≤90d 729 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 31% -10.4%
all 729 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 31% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 7% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$127 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,360
Realized−$4,790
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses662 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)729 / 743
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 729 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 92¢ 99¢ $201 $217 +$16 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $199 $214 +$15 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 93¢ 95¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 93¢ 96¢ $199 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 83¢ 84¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? No 93¢ 91¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 84¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 87¢ 90¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 85¢ 100¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 93¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $199 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $64 +$14 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 −$198 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$19 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $598 +$45 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $200 −$198 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$198 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 −$198 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $197 +$27 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $180 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $112 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $200 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$38 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $400 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$41 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $47 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 3m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 14m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $201 30m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $143 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $13 45m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $12 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 55m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $189 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,359.65 · official $2,358.65 (match) · 3500 history records