Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9bb…7d97 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-16%) realized −$475 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$374
14 days−$384
30 days−$553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$329
politics 27% +$16
other 10% −$121
crypto 7% −$227
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -79.4% -81.4% 20% 0% -33.1%
≤30d 37 -31.4% -37.9% 35% 32% -24.8%
≤90d 37 -31.4% -37.9% 35% 32% -24.8%
all 37 -31.4% -37.9% 35% 32% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 32% -24.8%
10% -43.9% 30% -32.0%
15% -49.3% 30% -38.6%
20% -54.3% 24% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$56 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$475
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage28d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 39¢ $200 $144 −$56 (-28%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 65¢ 79¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $1,029 +$31 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $51 +$84 +164%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $112 −$110 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $152 +$61 +40%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $72 −$70 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $102 +$176 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $76 −$51 -66%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $56 +$29 +51%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 29 $20 −$15 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $50 −$25 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $25 +$39 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $15 +$19 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $20 +$17 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $46 −$45 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $254 +$246 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $51 +$36 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $36 −$14 -40%
Will Solana reach $90 May 25-31? May 25 $155 −$150 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $56 +$25 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $25 +$29 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Tomas Machac vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $112 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 47¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $56 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $106 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 6d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 13¢ $10 13d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $545 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $21 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $44 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $60 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $10 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $81 14d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $268 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 57¢ $135 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.61 · official $221.61 (match) · 86 history records