Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9b2…b44b crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%95W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$66
14 days+$69
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$115
sports 23% −$169
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +5.7% -4.3% 80% 55% -4.4%
≤30d 139 +7.1% -3.1% 68% 47% -10.2%
≤90d 139 +7.1% -3.1% 68% 47% -10.2%
all 139 +7.1% -3.1% 68% 47% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 47% -10.2%
10% -12.4% 29% -18.8%
15% -20.8% 17% -26.6%
20% -28.6% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses95 / 44
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage26d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records