Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9b1…e47b sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+53%) realized +$122 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$127
other 37% −$18
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +37.4% +24.3% 36% 36% +38.2%
≤30d 28 +37.4% +24.3% 36% 36% +38.2%
≤90d 28 +37.4% +24.3% 36% 36% +38.2%
all 28 +37.4% +24.3% 36% 36% +38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 36% +38.2%
10% +12.4% 36% +24.9%
15% +1.6% 36% +12.9%
20% -8.4% 32% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $22 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$121 +237%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$4 +209%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +893%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$5 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 35m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 39m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 42m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 43m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 48m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 58m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $172 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $31 36h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.44 · official $19.44 (match) · 57 history records