Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa9ac…c5d1
world · 249 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$52,481 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41,630 · open +$1,588
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,007
Realized+$41,630
Unrealized+$1,588
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses92 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$478
Open positions30
Markets (closed)219 / 249
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,388
Trades / day135.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 30 History 219 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,964
7 days+$1,288
14 days+$17,703
30 days+$41,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 82¢ $3,761 $3,994 +$233 (+6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 72¢ 78¢ $3,009 $3,259 +$250 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $2,353 $3,201 +$848 (+36%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 89¢ $1,700 $1,739 +$39 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 14¢ 24¢ $986 $1,734 +$749 (+76%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $886 $785 −$101 (-11%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 71¢ 76¢ $596 $636 +$41 (+7%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $520 $408 −$113 (-22%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $384 $318 −$66 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $290 $309 +$19 (+7%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 60¢ 60¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $268 $262 −$6 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $190 $195 +$5 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $240 $126 −$114 (-47%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $55 $65 +$10 (+18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $23 $42 +$19 (+83%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $126 $42 −$84 (-67%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $100 $26 −$74 (-74%)
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+41%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $6,077 −$232 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,860 −$260 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,796 −$1,181 -42%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $715 −$422 -59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 13 $50 −$39 -78%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 13 $133 −$40 -30%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $381 −$42 -11%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 13 $83 −$47 -57%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Jun 13 $157 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5,904 −$1,385 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $610 −$84 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $558 −$63 -11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$39 -9%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $203 −$24 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $853 −$46 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 +$113 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $16,469 +$53 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $448 −$26 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1,154 +$383 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $202 +$101 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$441 +108%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,568 +$422 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$122 -60%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $480 +$68 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $444 +$268 +60%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $726 −$43 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $504 +$181 +36%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$88 +44%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $2,125 +$337 +16%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $182 −$48 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $9,698 −$1,702 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $4,690 −$82 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $386 +$158 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,007 +$231 +12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$29 +14%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,720 +$2,858 +166%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4,370 +$22 +0%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$19,074
other 18% +$11,809
crypto 7% +$11,494
sports 6% +$1,317
politics 4% +$64
finance 3% −$286
tech 2% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,000 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $593 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 12¢ $336 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 71¢ $1,000 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 68¢ $68 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 68¢ $88 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 68¢ $153 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $500 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 72¢ $200 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 73¢ $500 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $500 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,000 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 14¢ $200 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,414 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,600 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,674 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $31 3h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $633 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $255 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $120 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $390 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 30% -8.4%
≤30d 219 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 29% +2.7%
≤90d 219 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 29% +2.7%
all 219 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 29% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover135.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 29% +2.7%
10% -21.1% 22% -7.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.7% 16% -16.1%
20% -35.7% 9% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,007.21 · official $18,002.97 (match) · 3500 history records