Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A9 0xa9ac…28c7 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+2%) realized +$41 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$36
world 35% +$26
tech 22% +$1
politics 1% −$20
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 39% -5.7%
≤30d 18 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 39% -5.7%
≤90d 20 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 35% -8.3%
all 34 -1.9% -11.3% 71% 32% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 32% -7.7%
10% -19.8% 15% -16.6%
15% -27.5% 9% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage255d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 85¢ 96¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 23 $12 $0 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $200 −$17 -8%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17 Mar 18 $20 +$6 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $300 +$33 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 06 $50 +$7 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$6 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 28 $100 +$8 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Jan 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will ARC Raiders win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards Jan 04 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 02 $40 +$4 +10%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $199 +$13 +6%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $15 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $30 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 26¢ $4 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 82¢ $20 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $30 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $30 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 63¢ $10 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $200 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $50 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $50 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $50 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL No 30¢ $12 57d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 31¢ $12 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 55¢ $183 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 60¢ $200 94d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17 BUY Yes 77¢ $20 97d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 101d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? BUY No 65¢ $10 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 90¢ $300 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.68 · official $137.68 (match) · 69 history records