Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a7…76d3 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$3
other 15% $0
sports 6% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
finance 5% $0
politics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 20% -8.6%
≤90d 10 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 20% -8.6%
all 32 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -8.8%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+92%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $40 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $4 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -20%
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Sejong (세종) in the 2025 Korean Presidential ele Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 29 $16 $0 -2%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $2 $0 +13%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $29 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $5 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $21 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $9 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $33 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $8 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $41 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $18 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.14 · official $52.99 · 113 history records