Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a6…0009 sports 215 markets active 5d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,037 (-4%) realized −$27,037 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 108L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,971per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$4,165est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12,089
14 days+$25,102
30 days+$17,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$28,929
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 65% +15.7%
≤30d 67 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 49% +0.6%
≤90d 153 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 48% -11.5%
all 215 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 47% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 42% -21.9%
15% -31.7% 38% -29.4%
20% -38.4% 32% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$3,600) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,542 vs −$1,795 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27,037
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$4,165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage153d
Avg bet$2,971
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,990 +$3,510 +117%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,860 +$3,640 +127%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $743 +$330 +44%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $4,802 −$4,751 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3,552 +$3,448 +97%
Ronald Acuña Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $461 +$67 +15%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4,980 +$3,149 +63%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $896 +$1,201 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $8,531 +$3,688 +43%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $487 −$480 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2,570 +$687 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $1,860 −$1,820 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $276 −$270 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $1,565 −$1,553 -99%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $611 −$598 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $5,590 +$1,493 +27%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $803 +$349 +44%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3,115 −$3,065 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $598 −$585 -98%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $6,838 +$820 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6,918 +$3,082 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,880 +$2,004 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $114 +$120 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $538 +$665 +124%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $212 −$207 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $138 −$135 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 08 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2,306 +$1,758 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $3,733 +$7,794 +209%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $3,482 −$3,430 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,841 −$1,803 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $4,377 −$4,313 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $148 −$146 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 07 $44 +$56 +129%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $21,019 +$2,038 +10%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $66 −$64 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $3,926 +$1,074 +27%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $1,826 +$1,800 +98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $8,834 +$3,243 +37%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5 Jun 05 $70 +$101 +144%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $194 +$115 +60%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5,236 +$3,764 +72%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 05 $4 +$3 +82%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $2,233 +$5,767 +258%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 May 30 $342 −$341 -100%
Chisinau: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Sumit Nagal May 29 $204 +$222 +109%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $283 −$233 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $934 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $38 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $39 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $194 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $1,616 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $2,990 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $303 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $813 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $92 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $645 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 65¢ $770 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $1,320 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $859 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $0 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $6 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $40 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $19 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 64¢ $623 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $16 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2136 history records