Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a6…4fcf sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,300 (-8%) realized −$16,300 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%55W / 26L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,437per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$888est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,237
7 days+$2,616
14 days−$7,835
30 days−$11,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$18,149
other 33% +$1,277
crypto 1% −$2,646
world 0% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.0% -5.0% 74% 51% -7.4%
≤30d 67 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 46% -15.8%
≤90d 81 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 47% -18.8%
all 81 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 47% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 47% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -26.6%
15% -30.6% 15% -33.7%
20% -37.4% 11% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$3,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$1,664 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses55 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$888
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2,437
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $92 +$28 +30%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,397 +$203 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,855 −$3,745 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,200 +$131 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,219 +$781 +24%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $124 +$14 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11,668 +$732 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $91 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,284 +$1,716 +52%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $3,222 +$903 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7,452 +$148 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $5,246 +$104 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $4,793 +$417 +9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $1,940 +$60 +3%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $3,846 +$196 +5%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $291 +$203 +70%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3,013 +$487 +16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $27 +$107 +400%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,922 +$1,869 +21%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $183 +$107 +59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $4,750 +$250 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $6,627 +$794 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,990 +$157 +5%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $2,237 +$763 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $684 +$306 +45%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,171 +$800 +37%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $125 −$109 -88%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10,029 +$1,971 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $929 −$909 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,215 −$1,286 -58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,980 +$218 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5,226 −$5,226 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2,322 +$255 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,745 +$407 +23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $70 −$38 -54%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$51 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,799 −$3,799 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10,768 −$6,792 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,584 +$211 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,646 −$2,646 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,014 +$636 +32%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1,819 +$190 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $759 −$759 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $90 +$25 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,058 +$392 +19%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $559 +$440 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,609 +$478 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 28m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $83 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $3,110 39m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,397 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $885 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $852 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $72 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $4,922 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,186 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,014 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,219 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 69¢ $138 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $13 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $51 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $2 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $8 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $17 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $14 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $7 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $13 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,194 20h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 45¢ $91 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 689 history records