Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa9a5…9f2c other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,821 (-1%) realized −$1,825 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$199
politics 35% −$52
sports 12% −$1,573
economics 4% −$3
world 3% +$25
crypto 2% −$39
culture 2% −$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -1.9% -11.2% 7% 0% -11.3%
all 146 -3.9% -13.0% 24% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 16% -10.9%
10% -21.4% 15% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 12% -27.2%
20% -35.9% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,123) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$855
Realized−$1,825
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage163d
Avg bet$835
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $851 $855 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $281 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $1,447 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,200 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,368 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,362 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,144 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,560 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $769 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $248 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $324 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $584 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $905 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,059 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,936 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,040 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,941 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,767 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,573 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,393 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $727 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $864 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $923 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 10 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $563 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $564 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $634 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $635 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $469 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $469 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $852 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,452 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,454 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,338 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,446 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,447 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,296 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,298 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,524 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 15d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,653 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,656 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,615 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,617 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $768 22d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $871 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $855.16 · official $855.16 (match) · 510 history records