Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa9a0…c52b sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,245 (+32%) realized +$4,366 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%79W / 84L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,848
7 days+$2,395
14 days+$2,426
30 days+$3,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$2,731
other 12% +$1,494
crypto 3% −$29
finance 2% +$15
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +23.2% +11.5% 55% 55% +36.8%
≤30d 111 +13.6% +2.8% 53% 53% +20.3%
≤90d 153 +6.6% -3.6% 46% 45% +23.2%
all 163 +8.6% -1.8% 48% 47% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 47% +22.9%
10% -11.2% 45% +11.1%
15% -19.8% 44% +0.4%
20% -27.6% 37% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$45 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized+$4,366
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses79 / 84
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions4
Markets (closed)163 / 167
History coverage100d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ 70¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ 58¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-13%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ 46¢ $120 $96 −$24 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $112 +$91 +81%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $101 +$46 +45%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $184 +$418 +228%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$53 +52%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $174 +$297 +171%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$40 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $173 +$390 +225%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $40 −$1 -4%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $154 +$417 +272%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $111 +$32 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$56 -55%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $31 +$55 +180%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$9 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$42 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$20 -64%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 +$60 +66%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $254 +$236 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$8 -8%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $173 +$252 +146%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $203 +$232 +114%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $202 +$139 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $213 −$54 -25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $102 −$5 -5%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 18m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 26m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 85¢ $203 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $147 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $122 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $232 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $155 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $31 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $202 7h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $112 7h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $101 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $203 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 12¢ $12 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 11¢ $21 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 22h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $141 22h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $192 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $563 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.87 · official $498.87 (match) · 385 history records