Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa99c…21ee crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-6%) realized −$21 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$98
sports 4% −$32
other 2% −$33
politics 1% −$14
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -44.2% -49.5% 28% 15% -18.1%
≤30d 47 -44.2% -49.5% 28% 15% -18.1%
≤90d 47 -44.2% -49.5% 28% 15% -18.1%
all 47 -44.2% -49.5% 28% 15% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.5% 15% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -54.4% 9% -25.9%
15% -58.8% 2% -33.1%
20% -62.8% 2% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 19¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $185 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $92 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $122 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $61 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$4 -19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $16 −$13 -84%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $9.64 · 172 history records