Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

A9 0xa99b…297f other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$42 (+8%) realized +$16 · open +$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-5.0%	-14.1%	38%	38%	+5.8%
≤30d	8	-5.0%	-14.1%	38%	38%	+5.8%
≤90d	8	-5.0%	-14.1%	38%	38%	+5.8%
all	8	-5.0%	-14.1%	38%	38%	+5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.1%	38%	+5.8%
10% ← realistic here	-22.3%	25%	-4.3%
15%	-29.8%	25%	-13.6%
20%	-36.7%	12%	-22.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$3 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$185

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$26

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)8 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	Under	64¢	86¢	$29	$39	+$10 (+34%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Under	41¢	68¢	$19	$32	+$13 (+66%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5	Under	71¢	90¢	$7	$9	+$2 (+26%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	27¢	32¢	$3	$4	+$1 (+20%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$3	$0	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$3	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$4	+84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$189	+$26	+14%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$8	$0	-6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$20	−$11	-56%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 26	$26	−$1	-2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$105	+$43	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	8m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	81¢	$1	9m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	14m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	84¢	$0	14m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	84¢	$3	16m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	71¢	$10	33m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	41¢	$10	33m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	41¢	$30	36m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	64¢	$30	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	36¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	28¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$153	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$3	2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	41¢	$8	2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	42¢	$8	3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	29¢	$8	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$79	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	46¢	$20	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	46¢	$42	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$4	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	82¢	$0	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	82¢	$25	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	83¢	$26	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	35¢	$15	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$106	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.27 · official $185.27 (match) · 32 history records