Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa995…3d50 sports 340 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,429 (-3%) realized −$2,427 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%162W / 175L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$499est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,009
7 days+$1,009
14 days−$91
30 days−$2,861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$989
crypto 20% −$1,841
other 6% −$9
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +43.7% +30.0% 73% 73% +34.9%
≤30d 127 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 40% -18.1%
≤90d 215 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 45% -12.0%
all 337 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -12.4%
10% -19.1% 41% -20.7%
15% -26.9% 37% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 29% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$147 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$2,427
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses162 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$499
Open positions2
Markets (closed)337 / 340
History coverage172d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $233 +$218 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $127 +$224 +177%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $733 +$128 +18%
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $152 −$150 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $80 −$51 -64%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $127 +$128 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $91 +$54 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $127 +$76 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $102 +$210 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $291 +$196 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $603 −$599 -99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $163 +$247 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $524 −$213 -41%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $675 +$129 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $735 +$150 +20%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $355 −$315 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $205 −$131 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $414 −$313 -76%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $245 −$155 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $129 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $216 −$3 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$81 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $345 +$34 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$49 +47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$113 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$7 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $423 +$253 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $181 −$151 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$61 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$40 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $416 +$1 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$41 -40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $215 +$90 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$43 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $328 −$194 -59%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $123 −$60 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $294 −$269 -91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $788 −$780 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $647 −$35 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,039 −$89 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$72 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $99 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $362 −$328 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $310 −$294 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $413 +$333 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $54 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $233 2h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 100¢ $630 2h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 79¢ $502 3h
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 3h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 77¢ $231 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY 52¢ $225 3h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 26¢ $26 4h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 27¢ $26 4h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Brunno Ferreira 30¢ $26 4h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $127 5h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 62¢ $91 5h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Charles Johnson 26¢ $26 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $127 6h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 27¢ $29 6h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 76¢ $232 6h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 32¢ $102 6h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 100¢ $487 6h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY 35¢ $127 29h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 59¢ $291 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $603 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $213 12d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $163 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $569 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $436 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $436 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $247 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.79 · official $160.79 (match) · 952 history records