Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa990…dc90 weather 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$886 (-6%) realized −$962 · open +$76
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%305W / 243L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day130.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$197
14 days−$877
30 days−$867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$223
weather 21% −$333
crypto 7% −$734
other 3% +$48
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 46% -6.8%
≤30d 548 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 51% -15.5%
≤90d 548 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 51% -15.5%
all 548 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 51% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 51% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -23.6%
15% -30.8% 29% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$951
Realized−$962
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses305 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)548 / 549
History coverage18d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day130.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $875 $951 +$76 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $25 −$17 -66%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,130 +$154 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $301 +$32 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 +$30 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$8 -15%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $18 +$16 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $45 −$23 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $277 −$14 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$3 -11%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $101 −$56 -55%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$3 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $786 +$30 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $736 +$37 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $111 −$75 -67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $268 +$63 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 +$10 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$12 +30%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 −$9 -13%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$28 -91%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$9 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $122 −$38 -31%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $12 −$11 -91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$9 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $42 +$21 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 44m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 26¢ $8 44m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $867 46m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 75¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $888 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $802 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $333 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $396 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $97 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $10 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $42 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $18 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $257 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 67¢ $263 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $55 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $151 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 35¢ $22 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 38¢ $27 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $25 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.61 · official $950.61 (match) · 2636 history records