Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa98f…2296 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-13%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 29% -23.4%
≤30d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 29% -23.4%
≤90d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 29% -23.4%
all 14 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 29% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 29% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 29% -30.8%
15% -42.0% 29% -37.4%
20% -47.7% 14% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records