Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa98f…d282 weather 1782 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized −$11 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate92%1578W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$34
14 days−$9
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$26
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 21% -9.8%
≤30d 885 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 20% -9.5%
≤90d 1718 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 18% -9.6%
all 1718 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 18% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2,751
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1578 / 140
Open positions64
Markets (closed)1718 / 1782
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 1718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $121 $133 +$12 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $124 $130 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 88¢ 94¢ $119 $128 +$9 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 92¢ 93¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 94¢ 97¢ $118 $122 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $116 $115 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? No 90¢ 88¢ $116 $114 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $106 $113 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? No 93¢ 92¢ $101 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $101 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $88 $86 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 87¢ 96¢ $62 $69 +$7 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 95¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? No 86¢ 99¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 84¢ 76¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $33 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $124 +$18 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$5 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $61 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $71 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$12 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$34 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $44 4m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $44 4m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 32¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $61 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $58 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,751.00 · official $2,748.42 (match) · 3500 history records