Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa98a…2b04
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$60 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$176
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 8 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $222 +$52 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$61
other 42% −$3
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤30d 2 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤90d 2 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +14.4%
all 2 +59.9% +44.7% 100% 100% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.7% 100% +14.4%
10% +30.8% 100% +3.4%
15% +18.2% 50% -6.6%
20% +6.6% 50% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.36 · official $176.36 (match) · 14 history records